Our current food and agriculture system accounts for approximately one-third of the earth’s greenhouse gas emissions. It is a significant contributor to climate change and in many cases it causes environmental degradation, harming the natural systems that make life on earth possible.
The new report released by Hot or Cool Institute and followfood, “Food Production and Consumption in a 1.5-degree World – Options for Germany”, focuses in on this challenge in a German context. It illustrates the magnitude of the food system change necessary to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees and meet the targets established by the Paris Agreement.
As a case study for Germany, the report explores potential solutions to reduce the climate impact of German diets.
The report sets a per capita carbon budget for a German diet that is in line with the 1.5-degree target of the Paris Agreement (775 kgCO2-eq per person per year in 2030 and 360 kgCO2-eq per person per year in 2050). It paints the picture of a healthy and nutritious German diet that does not exceed the dedicated and equitable carbon budget.
Currently, the average German diet causes GHG emissions of 2300 kgCO2eq per person per year, the amount equivalent to driving a petrol car for 6500 km. The current carbon footprint is far from the 1.5-degree target and must be reduced by over 66% by 2030 and 84% by 2050 in order to be in line with a 1.5-degree lifestyle.
Hot or Cool’s report confirms that in order to achieve these significant GHG reductions in the food system by 2030, action will be needed throughout the food system. Action is needed on both the supply and demand front. For Germany, 40% of the needed reductions can be achieved by supply-side actions such as changing agricultural production and supply chain practices. More than half of the needed GHG reductions can only be addressed by consumer actions, particularly changes in diet. In Germany, required dietary changes include the reduction of meat consumption (by 58% compared to current levels), dairy products (26%), and beverages (30%). These products would be substituted by vegetables, fruits, whole grains and plant-based proteins.
Plant-based diets require less land than the current average German diet, thus offering the potential for reforestation and rewilding of agricultural areas. Findings in Hot or Cool and followfood‘s report suggest that 17% of space currently used for agriculture could be repurposed once diets have shifted to be in line with the 1.5-degree target.
Varied actions are needed to fully transform German food systems. Hot or Cool supports prioritising actions with the greatest yield - namely adoption of a plant-based diet.
These facts are also reflected in both Danish and Swiss dietary recommendations, which outline the benefits of reducing meat consumption and recommend a predominantly plant-based diet.
The German Federal Government is planning to release a new Food and Nutrition Strategy in the coming months that will address environmental factors for the first time. This will likely promote a healthier and more plant-based diet.